Description

This analysis provides a forecast of NEAR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 3.525206 4.073638 4.681263 5.404773 6.243381 7.185523 8.325335
2024-10-20 2.785527 3.497026 4.353955 5.463600 6.865058 8.579749 10.842533
2024-10-27 2.146403 2.894975 3.864198 5.214362 7.052426 9.476002 12.928852
2024-11-03 1.851841 2.664816 3.788616 5.461521 7.900092 11.343085 16.605731
2024-11-10 1.644818 2.510337 3.780153 5.788495 8.905157 13.590822 21.232868
2024-11-17 1.436761 2.313126 3.670356 5.938970 9.667049 15.604367 25.883741
2024-11-24 1.243227 2.101681 3.498661 5.955273 10.210737 17.357905 30.435219
2024-12-01 1.047429 1.851403 3.220312 5.742212 10.327520 18.415018 33.988353
2024-12-08 0.884279 1.628713 2.950415 5.492670 10.327655 19.253098 37.279459
2024-12-15 0.796829 1.526564 2.875121 5.578644 10.947586 21.303477 43.205004
2024-12-22 0.695787 1.382428 2.699305 5.442731 11.114534 22.511367 47.674547
2024-12-29 0.663963 1.367428 2.766879 5.795274 12.310824 25.945636 57.367831
2025-01-05 0.612807 1.308858 2.745967 5.978425 13.221264 29.019447 67.058998
2025-01-12 0.555064 1.227500 2.666084 6.024059 13.847468 31.606414 76.214816
2025-01-19 0.478543 1.093134 2.452271 5.736606 13.673005 32.374895 81.257119
2025-01-26 0.452297 1.067862 2.475939 6.001128 14.843912 36.496126 95.450028
2025-02-02 0.433885 1.057856 2.532949 6.355790 16.302272 41.589319 113.259238
2025-02-09 0.405140 1.018247 2.513530 6.517781 17.304260 45.724350 129.415328
2025-02-16 0.371487 0.960992 2.441915 6.533376 17.925649 48.983683 143.853468
2025-02-23 0.329437 0.875495 2.285783 6.297645 17.820562 50.258101 152.816809
2025-03-02 0.290919 0.793269 2.125428 6.022449 17.553350 51.026776 160.425117
2025-03-09 0.272294 0.762281 2.097315 6.116356 18.377176 55.113151 179.344346
2025-03-16 0.246108 0.706114 1.991571 5.966635 18.445502 56.961202 191.460733